The 2021 CPL season is set to begin in just over a week with The Kickoff presented by Volkswagen – a 32-game opening stanza in Winnipeg, Manitoba designed to give clubs the chance to return to home markets by this Summer.
While similar to the Island Games, Winnipeg’s series of matches will take place in a single site… but with the aim towards a full CPL season once COVID-19 vaccines ramp up.
The 2020 CPL season played entirely on the shores of Prince Edward Island was short and sweet, but it did give viewers and fans at home a suitable look at each CPL club.
Our good friends at Centre Circle Data – the CPL’s official data source which can be fully accessed here – dug up some stats from the Island Games to paint a small picture of what to expect, or not to expect, in Winnipeg from the CPL’s eight clubs.
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Pacific FC: 99 chances created
Pa-Modou Kah’s Pacific FC side thrived in possession on Prince Edward Island, surging forward and putting defenders on the back foot repeatedly and the numbers show that. The Tridents posted 99 chances created (passes leading to a shot) through ten matches – leading the lead by quite a margin (Cavalry came second with 79) – and with only six of those said shots coming from outside the box. Winger Marco Bustos led the CPL with 16 of those chances.
Needless to say, PFC can create chances in the attacking third. What’s worth mentioning, though, is their frailty at the back.
Kah’s side posted the 2nd highest expected goals against (xGA) per game at 1.6 on PEI – only Ottawa was worse at 1.98. PFC hasn’t exactly strengthened in that area this off-season either, losing Marcel de Jong to retirement and having their lone pure centre-back recruit, Duran Lee, go down with an Achilles injury.
Can we at least predict PFC will be entertaining to watch in 2021?
FC Edmonton: Five goals scored
The Eddies struggled to find the back of the net in 2020 — their five Island Games goals were fewer than any other club in PEI. Chance creation was a little less concerning as their xG (expected goals) ranked 5th best in the league last year.
Further dissecting where the scoring opportunities came from, it’s clear what Alan Koch will need to sort out ahead of his first season as Edmonton coach. The percentage of chances coming from set-pieces was 36%, the highest number in that department in the CPL.
Perhaps more concerning for Koch is losing Erik Zetterberg and Keven Alemán for 2021 as the duo created eight chances apiece last year — good for tops on the team. Making the switch from Valour, Fraser Aird and his eight chances created in 2020 will be important to ensuring Edmonton begins to capitalize in front of goal this season.
With target man Easton Ongaro leading the line for the Eddies, expect the 23-year-old to scavenge off set-pieces once again in his third year with FCE in 2021.
Cavalry FC: 11 passes allowed in their box per game
Tommy Wheeldon Jr. has organized the Cavalry backline to be as stingy a defensive unit as the CPL boasts — their 11 passes per game allowed into the defensive 18-yard box in 2020 a reflection of that claim. Their ability to win the ball back after losing control was also a serious strength for the Cavs at the Island Games, reclaiming it within six seconds 45% of the time they lost possession.
Question marks over the sustainability of this style arise as Dominick Zator is no longer with the team. Zator had the most touches of any Cavs player by some measure last season and replacing him will be no small task.
Luckily for Wheeldon Jr., additions to the attack might help balance out the big subtraction of Zator at the back. Their second-highest xG and fourth-best chance creation stats from last year could be improved by the arrivals of Joe Mason, José Escalante, and Anthony Novak, with the latter of the three bringing the fifth-highest xG+xA per 90 among active CPL players from his time with Forge.
Could we see Cavalry become a more prolific club reliant less on their defensive stability heading into 2021?
Valour FC: Most shots on target in the box per game
Valour was middle of the pack in plenty of statistical departments during the Island Games but particularly excelled in two areas: shots on target in the box and passes into the box, leading the league in both categories per game.
For Rob Gale, losing Fraser Aird, Shaan Hundal, and Dylan Carreiro will require creativity in restructuring the attack as the departing trio all ranked top five on the team in shots on target in 2020. Without TFC loanee Julian Dunn at the back, Gale will also need someone to step up and provide the kind of stability they got from Dunn in his seven games for the club.
With the 4th best xG and xGA at the Island Games, Valour has the potential to trend in two very different directions in 2021.
Forge FC: Most xG per game & least xGA per game
If a second straight CPL title didn’t make the dominance of Bobby Smyrniotis and Forge clear enough, creating the most expected goals while also being expected to concede the fewest should truly capture just how dominant they were at the Island Games.
With David Edgar calling it quits on his playing career, joining Smyrniotis’ coaching staff, adding Dejan Jakovic to the Hammers was as close to a like-for-like replacement as they could have hoped for.
Defensively secure and a constant attacking threat, the opposition will dread to see Tristan Borges back with Forge for the 2021 season on loan. The return of the 2019 CPL MVP will surely only see the xG and additional attacking stats for his side increase in 2021.
York United: Last in xG per shot
No team threatened to score per shot attempt less than The Nine Stripes did in 2020. Add in their second-worst xG from open play last year and it’s clear York struggled to create much offence at the Island Games.
Working in Jimmy Brennan’s favour is the longer season in 2021 to find some cohesion and creativity in the final third — a tall task to try and throw together in a shortened season. Coming in from Pacific, Noah Verhoven could be crucial to increasing scoring opportunities as the 21-year-old ranked third amongst CPL central midfielders in xA back in 2019.
If this newly rebranded United side wants to find success in 2021, quite simply they need to be far from more prolific than they were in the previous two campaigns.
Atlético Ottawa: Last in xG, scoring chances & xGA
Conversely to Forge, Ottawa struggled in their inaugural season as they ranked last in expected goals for and against. They lacked depth in 2020 and as such were forced to lean on the same starting XI game in, game out, making just 19 subs at the Island Games, the fewest in the competition.
Mista and his staff have done well to address their needs in the offseason and have made additions to create depth at both ends of the pitch ― their most noteworthy recruit perhaps being Ryan Telfer. Telfer’s 78 chances created are a CPL record, some 19 clear of Pacific’s Marco Bustos at 59.
Setting yourself up to concede fewer and score more often seems as good an offseason recipe for success as you can ask for. Add in a lengthy preseason camp in Madrid while much of the competition was sidelined and Ottleti could make some noise in the early stages of the 2021 season.
HFX Wanderers: Lowest pass % & highest % of forward passes
Stephen Hart’s 2020 Wanderers team could be described quite simply with one word: progressive. With the highest number of passes going forward in the league while completing the fewest percentage of said passes, it’s clear HFX had an emphasis on advancing the ball as early and often as possible.
Given the strengths of their attacking group — particularly reigning golden boot winner Akeem Garcia — their direct tactics should serve as little surprise. Garcia’s league-highest offside infractions and the Wanderers’ CPL-leading number of through balls could be viewed similarly.
After a run to the Island Games finals, Hart would do well to retain the counter-attack, run and gun style that brought his team so much success in their sophomore season. Ranking 2nd lowest in both xG per game set-piece chances per game last year will be of no bother to Halifax if they can continue rattle opposition defenders with their attacking pace in 2021.
Stats provided by the Canadian Premier League’s soccer operations department and Centre Circle Data. Download CPL statistics here.