Just one weekend remains in the Canadian Premier League’s 2023 regular season, but seeding for the playoffs remains far from settled.

We know Cavalry FC have finished first, and will host the semifinal qualifier against the second-place team in their first playoff game, but we don’t know who they’ll play, with all three of Forge FC, Pacific FC, and Halifax Wanderers FC capable of finishing anywhere from second to fourth.

The final playoff spot is also undecided; York United control their own destiny now after beating Atlético Ottawa on Sunday, but they need to beat Vancouver FC on Friday to guarantee themselves fifth place.

Here’s how things stand entering the last matchweek before the postseason:

York United FC: Win and you’re in

It’s fairly simple for York now; if they beat Vancouver FC on Friday night in Langley (7:30 p.m. PT/10:30 p.m. ET), they’ll make the playoffs as the fifth seed.

If they can’t beat Vancouver, they’ve still got a chance, but Atlético Ottawa could leapfrog them when they play Forge FC the following day.

York United will make the playoffs if…

Atlético Ottawa: Need a favour from Vancouver

Nathan Ingham said postmatch on Sunday that his side would be hoping for a favour from Vancouver FC on Friday, because if York win that game then Atlético Ottawa’s season is over.

If not, and VFC pull out a draw or win, then Ottawa could jump back into the playoffs — but they’d have to beat Forge on Saturday. A draw wouldn’t be enough for them, no matter what.

If York draw with Vancouver and Ottawa win, the two sides would be level on 35 points and 10 wins, but Atleti would make the playoffs because in that scenario they would at least maintain their advantage of 13 in goal differential.

Atlético Ottawa will make the playoffs if…

Battle for 2nd place down to the wire

It’s very complicated to break down all the scenarios that will dictate who might finish second, third, or fourth.

The main thing to know is that Forge hold the power in second place. Their gap ahead of Pacific and Halifax means if they win, they’ll finish second no matter what. If they draw, then Pacific could beat them on the wins tiebreaker if the Tridents win their match.

The only way for Halifax to finish second is if they beat Valour, Forge lose to Ottawa, and Pacific lose or draw in Calgary — but it’s not even quite that simple. The Wanderers also need to surpass Forge’s goal differential; as it stands, Halifax enter the final game at +6 while Forge sit at +8, so they’d need a multi-goal swing.

Here’s a breakdown of the major scenarios for who could finish second, and therefore earn a chance to beat Cavalry and host the CPL Final:

• Forge FC will clinch the #2 seed if they win vs. Atletico Ottawa
• Forge FC will clinch the #2 seed if they draw vs. Atletico Ottawa, AND
  Pacific FC draw or lose vs. Cavalry FC
• Forge FC will clinch the #2 seed if they lose vs. Atletico Ottawa, AND both
  Pacific FC and Halifax Wanderers FC fail to win their respective matches.
• Pacific FC will clinch the #2 seed if they win vs. Cavalry FC , AND Forge FC
  draw or lose vs. Atletico Ottawa.
• Halifax Wanderers FC may clinch the #2 seed if they win vs. Valour FC, AND
  Forge FC loses vs. Atletico Ottawa, AND Pacific FC draw or lose vs. Cavalry
  FC. NOTE: Halifax Wanderers FC will be tied with Forge FC on points and wins
  in this scenario, and the #2 seed will then be decided via Goal Differential.

There are various scenarios that could see any of Forge, Pacific or Halifax finish in the fourth spot and therefore host their playoff match on Wednesday night; those will continue to become clear as the weekend progresses.

With the final two matches played at the same time on Saturday, we’ll know the exact seeding of the top five at about 7 p.m. ET on Saturday evening.

All four games have something to play for; expect an electrifying season finale before the CPL playoffs take the intensity up another notch.

A reminder of this weekend’s schedule, all of which is available to watch on OneSoccer: