Eight games are left in the 2023 Canadian Premier League regular season. Two weeks. That’s it.

As matchweek 25 begins, we already know three of the teams going to the postseason — Cavalry FC, Forge FC, and Pacific FC have all punched their tickets — and by the end of this weekend the entire final five may officially be decided.

Something else we know for sure is that Cavalry will play at home on the first weekend of the playoffs, by virtue of winning the regular season title. They’ll take on the second-placed side, which could be either Forge or Pacific — that part isn’t yet decided, but it could be this week if Forge win and Pacific don’t.

We’ll go ahead and break down all the possible clinch or elimination scenarios for the three sides still battling for fourth and fifth, but if you’re in a rush and don’t want to scroll further, just know: the York United-Atlético Ottawa game on Sunday is everything. It’s probably among the most significant regular season matches in CPL history so far, with how much it could swing this playoff race.

Here’s how things stand right now:

Halifax Wanderers: Just one point away

Even though the Wanderers were disappointed to cough up their lead in Vancouver and come away without any points at all, they’re still in pretty good position to make the playoffs.

Halifax play at home against Forge on Saturday, and their fate is in their own hands. Simply: if the Wanderers get a point in that game, it’s done. They’re in.

If they lose, well, things get a little tighter, but they could still celebrate a playoff clinch on Sunday anyway. If Ottawa beat York, then for these purposes it won’t matter what happened at the Wanderers Grounds the day before.

That said, there’s another wrinkle that’s even more enticing for Halifax. If they beat Forge, and Ottawa lose or draw against York, then the Wanderers will mathematically guarantee a top-four finish, and therefore a playoff game in Nova Scotia.

Halifax Wanderers will clinch a playoff spot if:

Atlético Ottawa: Destiny in their hands

Ottawa have been in spiralling form lately, winless in their last six with four losses in that stretch — all of those defeats dealt by a last-minute winning goal they’ve conceded.

Still, Atleti have a leg up on sixth-place York with a one-point gap, and they can officially see off the foe trailing them in direct fashion this weekend. If Ottawa win against York, they’ll officially be in the playoffs.

Anything else, and the race will come down to the final weekend of the season. It’s still possible for Atleti to pass Halifax and get a home game in the postseason, too, so they’ll be desperate to put up six points from their last two matches.

Atlético Ottawa will clinch a playoff spot if:

York United: Do-or-die time

After three straight losses, all at home, things have felt bleak for York United in the past few weeks, but an improved performance against Cavalry gives Martin Nash’s side hope that they can still find a way into the playoffs.

Sunday’s game against Ottawa is surely among the biggest the Nine Stripes have ever played at York Lions Stadium — certainly, it’s the biggest regular season game, without question.

They can’t lock up a playoff spot this weekend, but York can put destiny back in their own hands. If they beat Ottawa, they’ll move up into fifth, needing a result (or an Ottawa loss) in the final week. A draw would at least keep them alive heading into the game at Vancouver FC next weekend.

If York lose again, though? It’s over.

York United will be eliminated from playoff contention if:

A little simpler than last week, right? This York-Ottawa game falling at such a pivotal point of the season is a happy coincidence, and it makes the task for both teams involved very clear. All they have to focus on is winning that game.

I wouldn’t recommend missing that game; it’s sure to be spectacle.

A reminder of this weekend’s schedule, all of which is available to watch on OneSoccer: