Clinch Scenarios: How Atlético Ottawa, Cavalry, Forge could clinch playoff berths this week

2022-09-20

Charlie O’Connor-Clarke, Digital Content Editor (@charliejclarke)

The 2022 Canadian Premier League campaign is coming right down to the wire, with seven clubs still mathematically alive in the hunt for the top four with only three or four matches remaining.

As teams continue to vie for those playoff positions — as well as the 2022 regular season championship — several clubs could have their fate determined in the upcoming Matchweek 25.

In the CPL, the top four teams advance to the postseason, with first place playing fourth and second playing third in two-legged semifinal ties (in which the higher seed hosts the second leg). The Final, between the two winning semifinalists, is a one-match knockout contest hosted at the stadium of the highest remaining seed.

First, a look at how things stand heading into this weekend’s matches. FC Edmonton, the only side eliminated so far, are highlighted in red. A reminder of the CPL’s tiebreaking procedures is available here.

Pos.	Club	Points	Wins	Games Left	Max. Points Potential	Goals For	Goals Against	GD
1	Atlético Ottawa	42	11	3	51	29	25	+4
2	Cavalry FC	41	12	3	50	35	29	+6
3	Forge FC	40	12	4	52	43	23	+20
4	Valour FC	37	10	3	46	33	26	+7
5	Pacific FC	37	10	4	49	32	32	0
6	York United FC	30	8	3	39	26	32	-6
7	HFX Wanderers FC	29	8	3	38	23	33	-10
8	FC Edmonton	16	3	3	25	27	48	-21

All eight CPL teams are in action over the coming weekend, with the fixtures as follows:

Friday, September 23:

York United FC vs. Valour FC (7:30 p.m. ET)

Saturday, September 24:

Cavalry FC vs. Atlético Ottawa (3:30 p.m. MT/5:30 p.m. ET)

Sunday, September 25:

HFX Wanderers FC vs. Pacific FC (3:00 p.m. AT/2:00 p.m. ET)
FC Edmonton vs. Forge FC (3:00 p.m. MT/5:00 p.m. ET)

Clinch Scenarios for Week 25

In total, three teams (Atlético Ottawa, Cavalry FC, and Forge FC) could theoretically clinch their playoff spot this weekend.

Atlético Ottawa will clinch if:

Atlético Ottawa win vs. Cavalry on Sept. 24

Note: Ottawa would clinch their spot with just a win vs. Cavalry (moving them to 45 points), because Cavalry play Valour the following weekend, which means that it would be impossible for four other CPL teams to match or exceed 45 points

Cavalry FC will clinch if:

Cavalry win vs. Atlético Ottawa on Sept. 24, AND
Valour lose or draw vs. York United on Sept. 23

Forge FC will clinch if:

Forge win vs. FC Edmonton on Sept. 25, AND
Valour lose vs. York United on Sept. 23

Meanwhile, two sides (HFX Wanderers FC and York United FC) could be eliminated from top-four contention if results don’t go their way.

HFX Wanderers FC will be eliminated if:

HFX Wanderers lose or draw vs. Pacific on Sept. 25

HFX Wanderers win vs. Pacific on Sept. 25, AND
Valour win vs. York United on Sept. 23

York United will be eliminated if:

York United lose or draw vs. Valour on Sept. 23

York United win vs. Valour on Sept. 23, AND
Pacific win vs. HFX Wanderers on Sept. 25

All four matches this weekend, as well as all matches the rest of the season including the 2022 CPL Playoffs, are available to watch on OneSoccer, Fubo TV, and TELUS Channel 980.