If the Canadian Premier League playoffs started this week, Atlético Ottawa would host the first match — a play-in game against fifth-place Halifax Wanderers.

If they’d started two weeks ago, Ottawa would’ve been headed to Nova Scotia for that game. Three weeks ago? York United would’ve hosted the Wanderers, and Atleti would have missed the postseason completely.

Such is the nature of the league table this season, that things can change in an instant. All of Pacific FC, Cavalry FC and Forge FC have enjoyed (if briefly) moments at the top of the standings in the past month, conjuring dreams of lifting a trophy in October and playing in the Concacaf Champions Cup next winter.

At the midpoint of August — every team having just eight or nine games left in the schedule — first place and all its laurels is separated from sixth place and an early off-season by just six points. In other words, York United, who enter matchweek 19 outside the playoff places, are two wins back of winning the league.

“I thought at the very beginning of the year this could be the most competitive season in the CPL,” Pacific head coach James Merriman said recently. “Clubs are starting to establish themselves, establish their philosophies in their team; there are managers coming into their second seasons that are newer managers, the salary cap; there’s so many different elements that create that parity across the league and we’re still only five years old.”

One other element honing the competitive edge this season: the new five-team playoff format.

Every team knows at this point in the season that the difference between two spots — which could come down to a point or even goal differential — could make or break a playoff run. Of course, if you’re in sixth you’re desperate to climb to fifth, but if you’re in fifth you’re similarly desperate to get up to fourth and host a playoff game.

Forge, currently in third, know how much more forgiving the path to the Final would be if they can climb into the top two. Pacific are striving to cling to first, so they can host that initial play-in match for a spot in the big game.

Those differences are a major driver of how close each match is at the moment; every single point in the table matters so much more than it used to.

“What you’re seeing is every single game matters, because, one, there’s a second Concacaf spot in there, so the league championship is like the rest of the world where it matters even more so,” Cavalry’s Tommy Wheeldon Jr. said. “Two, the placing within the league matters in terms of your playoff run. We really like the way it’s set out and we’ve really enjoyed that every single game matters, and you are seeing that with some of the performances.”

It’s not an illusion, either. Of 43 games played so far between the current top six, 32 (or just under 75 per cent) have been decided by one goal or a draw. This season, we’ve seen 39 leads given up in 77 games (51 per cent of matches), up from 44 in 112 a year ago (39 per cent). Games really have been close, and every team is fighting tooth and nail for every inch in the standings.

“Everyone’s jockeying for position and with the way the playoffs are laid out, the higher you finish the better it is,” York United gaffer Martin Nash said. “Teams are always trying to get as high as they can, and every point’s very important at this time of year. Teams are coming out fired up and going for three points because it makes a big difference between a draw and a win — it’s massive, especially as you see how close the standings are. I think that’s the big thing for all teams is you’ve got to go and try to win.”

Nash added, though, that it’s equally important right now to stop other teams from building separation in the table. He referenced a game two weeks ago at TD Place, where York had led but conceded a late equalizer — at which point, with the momentum in Atlético Ottawa’s favour, the Nine Stripes had to ensure they left with a draw.

“Ottawa scored on us late and then for me it was time, we’re on the road, let’s set up shop, take the point and get out of here because you don’t want the other team to get three points. There’s a fine line there and a balance, you’ve got to go for it and then there comes a time in the game where you’ve got to say, this is where we’re at, let’s either keep it or let’s push on.”

Each team competing for positioning — and a league title — knows how damaging it can be to take even one game off.

Consider, for instance: Atlético Ottawa were stapled to the bottom three for nine straight weeks, including about a month and a half stagnating in seventh place. Now? They’re in line to host a playoff game, but if they lose in Winnipeg on Friday and both Halifax and York win, they’ll be back on the outside — and Valour will be just five points out.

“I’m not going to say that in years past you took games off, that’s not in our mentality at all,” Forge’s Bobby Smyrniotis said. “But you look at certain things and manage things in a certain way. It’s always been our mentality to go in and get three points. Now when you’re at a point in the season when there’s less than 10 games, you know the margins are very thin. You also have to keep a cool head because you can go and get six points in the next couple weeks, and you’re at the top of the world.”

Life comes at you fast in this year’s CPL. On July 2, after Canada Day weekend, Pacific found themselves five points clear at the top of the table with two games in hand, seemingly set to cruise to the title. Three weeks later, Cavalry had passed them for first place. The Tridents have since returned to the top — and stayed there, albeit by the finest of margins (two points now) — but could lose that in an instant.

Valour, meanwhile, spent the first 10 straight weeks of the season in a playoff spot, and now sit well outside. It’s not over, though; whereas last year, breaking into the top four might’ve been too steep a hill to climb at this point, a run for fifth might not be impossible — especially if they keep playing like they did in the second half against Cavalry last weekend.

Their coach, Phillip Dos Santos, pointed out that keeping the race alive late in the year for as many teams as possible is absolutely crucial in an eight-team league without relegation.

“When you start falling behind, the gap is too big from where you are to where you could actually achieve something and be playing for something; you want to keep that alive,” Dos Santos said. “You want that to be there as long as possible, even for the excitement that it brings for the league. There’s relegation in other leagues, teams are fighting to the end for something, so I think it’s a good format. It gives teams a lifeline until the last minute, it gives teams opportunities to be fighting until the last minute and I think that makes it exciting for everyone.”

Even if Valour and one of the current top six do fall off in the next few weeks, leaving us with a clear picture of which five teams will make the playoffs, the race will not cool down.

All five teams, even having stamped a ticket to the dance, will be hungry to upgrade that ticket by climbing the table and increasing their odds of getting to the Final.

“Five teams getting an opportunity to come into the playoffs and fight for a championship is going to make every single match toward the very end a final for everyone, and no team is going to stop until the very end of the season, that’s for sure,” Merriman said.

“It’s creating what it was designed to create. However at Pacific we’ve never won the league in a 28-match season; that’s been our number one goal this season and we’re going to continue to fight every match for that, that’s our focus.”

That is, of course, the greatest prize: the league title. Atlético Ottawa won the regular season championship last season and celebrated appropriately, but this year the spoils are even greater with a guaranteed spot in the 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup for the top side in the league — one of three ways a CPL team can qualify for the continental stage, alongside winning the playoff title and the Canadian Championship.

Forge and Pacific have already enjoyed some special Concacaf nights, and those will be even more special next year with some of the top-quality opposition waiting in the Champions Cup. Dare we imagine, for instance, Lionel Messi and Inter Miami at Spruce Meadows? Club América at Starlight Stadium?

It’s not as impossible as you’d think.