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MATCH ANALYSIS: Pacific FC clinch fifth straight playoff berth with hard-earned 1-0 win over Forge FC

Final Score: Pacific FC 1-0 Forge FC
Goalscorers: Zanatta 32′
Game of the 2024 season: 112
CPL match: 596


Match in a minute or less

For a fifth straight season, Pacific FC will participate in the Canadian Premier League playoffs, as they defeated Forge FC 1-0 at Starlight Stadium to clinch fifth spot in the table.

Dario Zanatta opened the scoring for Pacific FC in the 32nd minute, as Adonijah Reid did well to take the ball from out wide and whip in a dangerous low ball towards the back post, finding a wide-0pen Zanatta for the game’s opening marker.

From there, Pacific did what they needed to in order to secure a win, putting in a strong defensive performance late to clinch victory.


Three Observations

Pacific extend playoff streak with gritty performance

It hasn’t been the easiest campaign for Pacific, who after a hot start, fell down the table as they suffered through a midseason slump.

After once looking like a team that might push for the CPL Shield, they entered the last round of games playing for their playoff lives, as they remained in a tough fight to earn a postseason berth for a fifth straight season.

While it felt too early to write off Pacific, however, who has made a habit of playing some of their best football over the years when underestimated, it also felt hard to imagine a scenario where they turned around their season. Given that they sat in seventh place after 21 games, it was a tall ask, one that was going to require a full 180 from where they sat.

There, however, instead of fading in the face of that adversity, Pacific ended up playing some of their best soccer of the season.

With this win, they’ve now ended the season having picked up 14 points from their final eight games (4W-2D-2L), a stark contrast from their previous seven games, where they had picked up just one point.

That recent stretch allowed them to control their destiny heading into this final game, and despite being up against a CPL Shield-winning Forge, they found a way to keep the good times going in this match, allowing them to clinch their spot in the playoffs in style.

Now, it’s put them in a good position to make some noise in the postseason, too. Not only are they arguably in their richest vein of form, they’re putting up their best performances, and, most importantly, are as healthy as they’ve been all year.

The latter point is quite key, as Pacific’s struggled to keep their best players on the field all year long, losing several key players to injury. For example, they’ve recently even been without their captain, Josh Heard, who had last made an appearance for Pacific on August 11th before he made his return to action in this Forge game.

That’s tough to deal with for any team, but Pacific have done well to now put that behind them at a crucial period, and it’s seemed to give them a big boost all over the pitch.

“I mean, it’s the first game in a long time where we’ve had that 18 and and the full squad (almost fully) available,” Pacific’s head coach, James Merriman, said. “All season long, we’ve been battling with injuries. We’ve been without our captain, Josh Heard for six to eight weeks, but you could see him yesterday in training, he was was the one leading training, he was one pushing in training with the intensity that he was bringing, he made sure everybody understood the moment.”

“Now, I think we’re in a good place going into the postseason, for the first time all season, we have some consistency in who’s available, we knew we had options (on the bench) today, players that could come in and impact the game, and we haven’t had that in a while, it’s been really difficult, but now we feel good, and we feel good moving forward and going on the road (for the playoffs).”

Because of that, keep an eye on this Pacific side heading into the postseason.

They remain a strong defensive team, having conceded just 32 goals in 28 games, and have rediscovered their offensive form, finding the balance in their play that has lacked all year, where they’ve often had to seemingly choose between defensive solidity and having offensive firepower.

Now, they’ll have to pick up some results on the road, which won’t be easy given that they picked up the sixth-most points in the league away from home, but having won one and drawn two of their last four road matches, they’ve been trending in the right direction in that regard, too.

Especially as they now get set for a match away against York United in the first match of the playoffs, they’ll feel doubly confident ahead of that match, having recently beat York 2-1 away in a dramatic comeback win earlier this month, a game that Pacific certainly won’t forget as they now get set to prepare for a rematch.

“We’ve proved that we can go into tough situations and get results, so we’re fully confident that we’ve got more than we’ve shown, and that there’s more than enough in our squad to disrupt a few teams and hopefully cause a few upsets,” Zanatta said.

“I feel as if there’s almost a little bit of a bit of bad blood created from the last game where we came back and got the result we needed, so I’m looking forward to it, big time,” he added when asked about facing York again.

Photo Credit: Pacific FC/Sheldon Mack

Despite second straight loss, Forge ready to kick off postseason

For most teams, they might find a reason to be concerned about finishing the regular season with two straight losses as they get set for the postseason.

With the power of momentum in this sport, it can be hard to turn the switch from that sort of run and dial things up, which is why coaches will push to finish a season on a high note.

Because of that, some might glance at Forge’s end to the season and be worried about their North Star Cup aspirations after they fell 2-0 to Atlético Ottawa last week before falling to Pacific in this match.

For those who know this Forge side, however, they won’t be too worried. Certainly, Forge doesn’t seem to feel any pressure in that regard when asked, and for good reason.

Having won four North Star Cups in the first five seasons of the CPL’s existence, they’ve proven time and time again that they know how to show up when the occasion calls for it in the playoffs.

They even showed that in 2023 – there, they lost their final two games of the regular season, losing 2-1 to the Halifax Wanderers before dropping a 1-0 result to Atlético Ottawa. That didn’t stop them from doing well in the playoffs, however – they then responded by winning their playoff opener against Cavalry FC in the qualifying semifinal, before dispatching that same Cavalry side two weeks later in the final to clinch their fourth North Star Cup.

Because of that, they won’t put too much stock in these recent matches. As much as they’ll be frustrated to lose those games – you don’t win as many trophies as a team like Forge without having a hunger to win every match – they’re also focused on the bigger picture.

After a gruelling season, they’ve also been focused on letting some key players rest and recover ahead of bigger games, and having been able to clinch first spot with a few weeks to spare, that’s afforded them with the luxury to rotate more over these recent games.

Now, as they get set to turn their attention to their first playoff game, which is fittingly a rematch with Cavalry in the playoff qualifying semifinal, they’re looking to dial things up once again.

Using the hunger of these recent results, and armed with a desire to win their third straight North Star Cup and fifth overall, they won’t have any problem motivating themselves for that game.

Facing a Cavalry team they’ve shared some entertaining matches with over the years, they’ll want to make the most of the occasion, while continuing to have Cavalry’s numbers in postseason meetings.

Because of that, Forge isn’t dwelling too much on this loss, and is instead already focusing on that Cavalry match, with the preparation for that match already starting as soon as they got on the bus after this Pacific clash.

“You need to be sharp or else every team can beat anyone in this league,” Forge’s head coach, Bobby Smyrniotis said. “It doesn’t matter where you are in the standings, so we’ll get prepared, we’ve played each other enough times in the regular season, we know how it is, so we’ll throw out what we’ve done in the last two games, five games – it all doesn’t matter.”

“These (playoff games) are one game situations, we obviously have a lot of experience in that, and we prepare like that, so we’ll get to it right now as we get back to the hotel, we have a flight out of here, the coaches will get the film ready to be watch, and we’ll be prepared.”

After a strong regular season, Forge’s focus has shifted towards what’s next now that they’ve celebrated winning the CPL Shield, and that starts by flushing out the memory of any bad energy their two recent losses could’ve possibly created.

“I look forward to (the playoffs), no matter who we play,” Forge’s Alexander Achinioti-Jönsson added of his upcoming match. “We’ve played them a lot of times in the playoffs, but to us, it doesn’t matter who we play, be it Cavalry next week, or be it in the cup, if we played Toronto FC and CF Montréal, we know what mentality we need to go into those games with and try to focus on doing our stuff right and to have the right energy in it, as we know that our football is good enough to help us win against any opponent.”

Photo Credit: Pacific FC/Sheldon Mack

Direct Pacific capitalize on Forge’s aggressive attack early: 

With there being so much at stake in this game, the tactical battle was going to be crucial, as it felt like this game was going to be one where one moment could decide everything.

Because of that, it was imperative for both teams to be sturdy on both sides of the ball to start the game, knowing that this was a game where mistakes both in the attack and defensive could prove to be costly.

To begin the match, Forge started more on the front foot, as they held more of the ball and started to push forward in possession. As a result, they carried a slight edge in possession through 45 minutes, sitting with a 51.8%-48.2% edge at half time.

In particular, they seemed to be in strong control in the middle of the pitch, doing well to keep circulating the ball through central channels.

Where they struggled, however, was in two areas.

First, there was in the final third, as they generated just one first half shot (worth 0.02 xG), making just one touch in Pacific’s box.

Then, more importantly, they were struggling to defend in transition, as Pacific did well to catch them on the counter-attack on several occasions. In particular, they were doing well to catch them in the moments immediately after any Forge turnovers, as they aimed to get in behind them with a quick long ball.

With Forge playing so aggressively in the attack, with their defensive back four turning into an aggressive back three, Pacific capitalized on Forge’s rotations whenever they won the ball back.

That ended up manifesting itself on the goal, in particular. After doing well to pick up the ball in the middle shortly after Forge had lost the ball, Pacific’s Thomas Meilleur-Giguère managed to dribble into space centrally and fired a switch of play to Adonijah Reid, who helped create his team’s goal on that action.

Without a moment of awareness from Meilleur-Giguère, who opted to play quickly and directly instead of slowing down play, Reid doesn’t get the chance to isolate himself out wide and whip in a cross, helping create that marker.

Yet, that goal seemed to frustrate Forge, who slightly shifted their shape at half time to give them more solidity in wide areas when defending transitions, as left back Malik Owolabi-Belewu started to play more conservatively in the second half.

To Forge’s credit, that switch made a big difference, and that allowed them to avoid letting Pacific run as freely in transition in the second half. Then, even when Pacific hit them in transition, which was only natural as Forge pushed for an equalizer, the Pacific chances weren’t as dangerous – six second-half Pacific shots yielded 0.68 xG, a dip compared to the 0.78 xG they generated on just four first-half chances.

Therefore, while Forge will be frustrated with the goal they conceded, they’ll be pleased with the adjustment they made to limit Pacific later.

“It’s one moment where we lacked concentration,” Smyrniotis noted. “Meilleur-Giguère runs through the midfield and there are four or five guys there, and nobody goes to him. Ask me next week if that happens (vs. Cavalry), and I’ll tell you if the guys have let themselves down, but it’s uncharacteristic there, and then they score on the ball to the back post, but that’s the margins in in these games.”

The xG plot from this game, with Pacific in black and Forge in purple, showcasing the quality of shots in this game (OPTA)

As for Pacific, however, they’ll be using this game as a blueprint for what they can do in the playoffs.

Given what they’ve shown as of late offensively, scoring 13 goals in their last eight games after scoring just 14 goals in their first 20 matches, they’ve proven they can be dangerous in several areas, including in transition.

Seeing that, it’ll give them hope of making some noise in the playoffs, where they might have to sit back and defend more given that they’ll be the road side in any matches they play. As a result, that’ll push them to need to be dangerous on the counter, with this game offering a blueprint of what that can look like.

If anything, they’ll actually feel they left offence on the table in this match, too, as they generated 1.46 xG and had three big chances (per OPTA), suggesting they could’ve scored a second or third to put this game away, showing what they can do when they attack the right spaces on the field, something they’ll want to remember as they get set for what’s next.

“We wanted to bring that alive a lot more,” Merriman offered when asked of his team’s transition game. “We wanted to attack the wide spaces with Steffen (Yeates) and Dario (Zanatta) on the left, and with Adonijah (Reid) and Kunle (Dada-Luke) on the right.”

“That was the idea, that was the plan, and I think we overplayed a lot to begin the game, but also maybe we were getting used to the pitch, it was very wet, the ball was very wet and didn’t always come true off the boot, so we struggled a little bit, but the goal is exactly something that that we were working on that we wanted to bring alive, and I think we could have done more, but this was not an easy day for for the players.”

The action map from this game, showing who held more of the ball and where that possession came (OPTA)

CanPL.ca Player of the Match

Juan Quintana, Pacific FC

Quintana put in a big performance to help his side keep a clean sheet in this game, and that’s reflected in the numbers, as he finished with three tackles, six clearances, one interception, one recovery and won all eight of his duels in a stout defensive showing.

All of Juan Quintana’s actions from this game (OPTA)

What’s next?

Pacific will kick off the playoffs in a matchup of fourth and fifth in the table against York United at York Lions Stadium on Wednesday, Oct. 23 (7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT), with the winner of that match advancing to the quarter-final against Atlético Ottawa at TD Place on Sunday, Oct. 27 (1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT).

Meanwhile, Forge will face Cavalry in the playoff qualifying semifinal later that same Sunday at Tim Hortons Field (4 p.m. ET/2 p.m. MT), with the winner of that match advancing to the CPL Final on Saturday, Nov. 9, which they’ll host, and the loser heading to the other semifinal where they’ll host the winner of the quarter-final, with that match occurring on Saturday, November 2nd.

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