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MATCH ANALYSIS: Valour kicks off crucial stretch of home games with key 2-1 victory over Forge

Final Score: Valour FC 2-1 Forge FC
Goalscorers: Swibel 11′, Ressureição 57′; Borges 53′
Game of the 2024 season: 65
CPL match: 549


Match in a minute or less

For the first time in 2024, Valour have won back-to-back games in CPL play, as they defeated Forge 2-1 at Princess Auto Stadium on Sunday.Valour opened the scoring just 11 minutes into the game, too, and it came in spectacular fashion, as Jordi Swibel found the top corner with a perfectly executed curled free kick from outside of the box to give his team a 1-0 lead.

Soon after half time, however, Forge responded with an equalizer in the 53rd minute, as Kyle Bekker found Tristan Borges with a cross, one that Borges did well to nod into the top corner to make it 1-1. From there, Valour would regain the lead in the 57th minute, as Jordan Faria found Diogo Ressureição with a nice cross into the box, and he slotted home from close range to give his side a 2-1 lead.

A lead they wouldn’t relinquish, that would allow Valour to claim all three points, pushing them to within three points of the playoff line with the victory.


Three Observations

Valour shows good resolve to kick off homestand with a crucial win:

Heading into a crucial run of home games to end off their season, starting with a four game homestand that comes as part of a stretch that sees Valour play eight of their last 13 games at home, Valour wanted to kick this sequence off on a high note, and that began with their start to this game.

Because of that, they’ll be pleased to find the net as early as they did after a wave of early pressure, allowing them to dictate the terms of the proceedings early on thanks to a fast start.

At the same time, that hot start came with a cost – they now had to spend the rest of the game trying to defend a wave of Forge pressure, as the visitors looked to get back into the game.

Because of that, it made the next goal quite crucial, as a Valour goal would’ve given them a lead that they would’ve felt confident with, while a Forge goal would’ve given Forge a key edge given the momentum they were starting to build.

Or at least one would’ve thought. When Forge then stepped up and found an equalizer, it looked like they might take a big foothold in the game, as they looked to find a lead and pick up a crucial road victory.

Instead, however, Valour did well to respond to that moment of adversity. Instead of letting their heads sag, which would’ve benefitted Forge, they kept their spirits up and immediately looked to regain their lead.

That mentality paid off for them, as they found a response nearly right away, and didn’t look back from there.

“No matter if we concede first or second, or if we go up and conceded right after that, it’s just about staying together as a team,” Swibel offered. “And then focusing on our roles, responsibilities and not changing that just because they’ve scored a goal or anything like that.”

Photo Credit: Valour FC

Yet, that’s a huge credit to Valour, who have now put together their best three-game stretch of the season over their most recent trio of matches, in which they’ve picked up two wins and one draw.

No doubt, they’ll be pleased with a lot over those games, such as their attack, which scored seven goals in that stretch, or their defence, which only allowed three goals, as well as their overall team play. They’ve looked organized on both sides of the ball, doing well to stay disciplined when they don’t have possession and free-flowing when they do attack, and that’s showed in their performances.

Most importantly, they’ve done well to bring the right mentality to each game, doing well to manage the ups and downs that can occur within any given match.

Thanks to that, they’ve now put themselves in a strong position in the table, now sitting within touching distance of the playoff line, and they’ll look to keep up this momentum as they continue to tackle this crucial stretch.

“Talking about momentum, it changes very fast,” Valour’s head coach, Phil Dos Santos, said. “But what do we got now is an opportunity, and the guys are going to embrace that this week with good levels of confidence and belief, so we’re looking forward to the next game. We know that it’s going to be a very difficult game, but we’ll be prepared and ready for it.”

Forge struggles to create quality looks despite aggressive offensive performance:

Naturally, having to chase a game can push a team to hold more of the ball as they try and break open the match.

For a team like Forge, however, who likes to hold onto the ball, that can be advantageous for them when they go down in games, as they’re used to playing in possession and trying to break down sides sitting in low blocks.

Because of that, they won’t have been fazed by the situation that they faced in this game, in which they went down a goal early, before facing a similar scenario when Valour regained the lead again in the second half.

Forge’s performance in this game showed that, and that’s reflected in the stats as they generated 22 shots (including seven on target and 13 in the box), held 64.9 % of possession and had 37 touches in Valour’s box across 90 minutes.

The action map from this game, showing where the ball was during the math (OPTA)

Despite that, however, they were unable to find the goals required to get any points in the game, as other than the moment of magic on the Bekker to Borges link-up, Forge was just missing one crucial element to their offensive play – the final action.

Certainly, credit can be given to Valour in that regard. Despite spending a large chunk of the game having to defend their lead, they bent but didn’t break in the face of Forge’s offensive pressure, and did well to make life tough for their opponents in and around their box.

Then, in the moments where Forge got a bit of daylight and seemed likely to fire a dangerous shot, Valour then did well to throw themselves in front of any attempts, making five blocks.

At the same time, while Valour’s defensive performance deserves credit, Forge will feel that they could’ve done more to make the most of their offensive opportunities. For example, for all of their shots, just one was worth more than 0.25 xG on OPTA – Borge’s goal, which was worth 0.293 xG, as they struggled to find the daylight to craft many clear-cut opportunities.

On the other side, Valour had two attempts worth more than 0.3 xG, one of them being their winning goal, which clocked in at 0.892 xG. Ultimately, when it came to splitting open a game like this, that they were able to craft a chance of such high quality made a huge difference for them, and allowed them to grab the win.

Therefore, for Forge, they’ll now look to try and make sure they earn more quality looks in their games to come. Ultimately, they’re not too worried about this game, as they’ve done well to generate chances and finish them this season, and will chalk this up to being ‘one of those days’ offensively, which can happen over the course of a long season.

“We’ve created a lot of good opportunities (today),” Forge’s head coach, Bobby Smyrniotis, said. “We created a lot of high-quality scoring chances in and around the goal, and not a lot of stuff from distance, but from close-range, too but they didn’t go in. Lately, those goals have been going in for us, but this was a game where we’ve taken some of the most shots this year, and good quality shots, too, even those that then went off target came from a good process, but they didn’t go in today, and some days, that happens. Now, you just got to keep doing the right stuff (going forward) and hope that you have better results than today.”

“It’s just one of those days where you’re going to look back and watch the video and see the quality of the chances that we created,” Borges added. “We got into the right spots that we want it to be in, but it was just one of those days where it didn’t really fall in the right spot for us, so we’ve just got to move forward.”

The xG plot from this game (Valour in black and Forge in purple), reflecting the quality of shots taken by both teams (the bigger the bubble, the higher quality it is) (OPTA)

Valour uses speed to open up transition opportunities:

Of course, when a team is pushing for goals, it can also open up space to attack into the other way in transition.

Against a team like Forge, however, who is used to playing on the front foot, they do a good job of making sure they’re not too open in those moments, so teams have to be quick and ruthless to find opportunities when they leave dangerous gaps in the backline.

Valour was aware of that, however, and there’s no better example of that on their winning goal, where they showed what one needs to do in order to catch Forge out.

Having spotted a bit of space in behind’s Forge’s defensive line, they quickly took the ball and hit it into space, where Faria had already anticipated the ball and had gotten a jump on the play. From there, he made no mistake with the rest to set up the goal.

That wasn’t the only instance where Valour were able to get into those sort of areas in behind Forge’s back line, either, as they did well to use their speed to their advantage in this game. Thanks to the presence of Faria, Swibel and Shaan Hundal up front, who are all quick, they did well to constantly make runs and keep Forge’s defence honest.

Photo Credit: Valour FC

That ended up helping the rest of Valour’s attack, because even when Faria, Swibel and Hundal didn’t receive the ball, their runs forced Forge’s defenders to have to defend more passively, as they had to be constantly aware of the possibility that any mistake would free up that Valour attacking trio to get to work.

Yet, this is one of the reasons why Valour’s been able to find their feet offensively as of late, as they’ve now got multiple ways to hurt teams in the attack. Not only can they hurt teams with their speed, but they’ve also got players who can operate in between the lines such as Ressureição, and have some dangerous crossers, none better than Themi Antonoglou.

Through that, they can be flexible in the attack, adapting their play based on their opponent.

“That’s the main thing as a forward, it’s (important) to stretch opposition defensive lines as it creates gaps for our midfielders to get on the ball,” Swibel explained. “We’ve got great players who can find the ball in the pocket and can get into space, so it’s our job to create that space for them, and even if they don’t get the ball then you know we’ve got good players across the back line who can find us in behind, as well.”

In this game, they played more direct with speed, but then against Pacific in their last game, they were more dangerous on the flanks and in possession, and did well to capitalize on some late runs and set-pieces against Atlético Ottawa the game before that.

Thanks to that, they’ve come alive offensively as of late, which is helping them pace this run, and they’ll look to keep growing offensively as each of their attackers gain confidence. Seeing that they’ve had their last eight goals scored by eight different players, that just shows how well they’re doing to get contributions across the lineup and not just from one source, further highlighting the work their versatile attack is doing right now.

“I feel that we have many ways of finding goals,” Dos Santos said. “You saw Jordi (Swibel) today with his fantastic free kick, you saw the the action of Faria to get players like Diogo (Ressureição) in front of goal in a transition moment, and that’s not the first time we’ve scored on a fast break like that.”

He added: “We know that we have the tools now to keep working and to make sure that that we capitalize on our half chances in the moments where we do get opportunities… I like what I see with the team, Offensively, I always feel that there’s a goal in us.”


CanPL.ca Player of the Match

Jordan Faria, Valour FC

Faria was a lively presence down the right side of the pitch for Valour in this game, helping play a key role in this victory.

Of course, his assist on the winning goal was the highlight, but so was his overall play, as he finished the game with 14 out of 17 completed passes (82%), two chances created (including one big chance), two shots, two dribbles, one pass into the final third, two fouls won, two tackles, seven recoveries and eight out of 12 duels won in a complete performance.

All of Jordan Faria’s actions from this game (OPTA)

What’s next?

Valour will play the second game of their four game homestand next weekend, as they get set to host York United at Princess Auto Stadium on Sunday, August 11th (7:00 p.m. CT/8:00 p.m. ET). Meanwhile, Forge will get set for a crucial home match against league-leaders Atlético Ottawa at Tim Hortons Field on Saturday, August 10th (7:00 p.m. ET).

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