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MATCH ANALYSIS: Early Poku brace lifts Forge over Valour despite back-and-forth second half

Final Score: Forge FC 2-1 Valour FC
Goalscorers: Poku 12′, 31′; Binate 71′
Game of the 2024 season: 42
CPL match: 526


Match in a minute or less

Forge FC moved into second place in the Canadian Premier League on Sunday at Tim Hortons Field, as they beat Valour FC 2-1 for their fifth win of 2024.

Kwasi Poku continued to dazzle in the centre-forward position for Forge, scoring twice in the first half to give his side a lead that would ultimately prove insurmountable.

Valour came alive in the second half, as Abdul Binate’s first professional goal brought them within one and they came close to an equalizer on several occasions, but the Hamiltonians held on through the end to take all three points.


Three Observations

Forge ruthless in the first half to fly out in front, hold on late despite missed opportunities

Coming into this game, Forge had won just one of their previous six league matches, including a draw last weekend in Halifax and a loss in Calgary the week before. In this, their return to Tim Hortons Field after two weeks away, Forge therefore kicked off with a businesslike energy, intent on scoring early and often to return to their best form.

The Hamilton side were comprehensively dominant in the first half, with 63.4 per cent possession, seven shots and 0.96 expected goals. Their press was high and effective, as they won the ball three times in the final third — one of which led to Poku’s second goal.

Although they leave this match with a winning feeling, Forge might not be as pleased with the performance as they looked like they might from the first 45 minutes.

At their best, when Forge enter the second half with a lead they often press their advantage and put the game to bed, although the only team they’ve really done that against this year has been York United (albeit on three occasions).

Forge coach Bobby Smyrniotis was, therefore, largely thrilled with his side’s performance in the first hour or so, particularly how quickly they got the ball into the attacking third and played balls in behind the Valour defence. They punished their opponents for how much open space they left in various areas of their own half, and pulled Valour apart with their passing.

However, Forge could undoubtedly have made the final 20 minutes of the game easier on themselves. The biggest culprit would be Nana Ampomah’s 82nd-minute miss from inside the six-yard box. That chance had an 0.62 expected goals value (just shy of a penalty kick, which is 0.76), but the recent newcomer to the team skied the opportunity. The in-form Poku was also open to receive Béni Badibanga’s pass across goal, but Ampomah was still in a better position — he just couldn’t find the target.

“I liked the first 70 minutes,” Smyrniotis said of Sunday’s game. “I think we could have a lot more goals on the board. Yeah, we’re ruthless in creating, but we need to be ruthless in finishing. That’s important in games where you have total control and you’re creating opportunities; you need to make sure you increase that distance from your opponent. In these types of games, you’re always one play from making it interesting, and the game got interesting after the 70th minute.”

Indeed it did get interesting, which might’ve kept the neutral engaged, but Forge still came out of it with all three points and now find themselves almost in striking distance (five points back) of Atlético Ottawa, whom they’ll take on at TD Place next weekend.

HAMILTON, ONTARIO, CANADA/Canadian Premier League/June.23rd, 2024/ Jojo Yanjiao Qian/Forge FC

Valour individual mistakes prove costly as second-half resurgence not enough

Perhaps the biggest thing holding Valour back this season has been a tendency to make costly errors at key moments.

That was, again, their downfall on Sunday, as the balance of the game as a whole — the second half in particular — suggests they may have had a chance to get something out of it, but two poor defensive moments in the first half gave Forge what they needed.

Valour’s defending before the first Forge goal wasn’t sharp enough; David Choinière won multiple battles to hold onto the ball and play it to Kyle Bekker, but when it came to Bekker too many of Valour’s defenders stepped up toward him. They likely knew Poku was lingering in behind them, but weren’t aware that Roberto Alarcón hadn’t come forward and was therefore keeping Poku onside:

For the second goal, Antonoglou was too casual with the ball bouncing in front of him and his back to the approaching Badibanga, who was able to knock it into Poku’s path for what would be the winner.

It’s unfortunate for Valour that those two moments proved so damaging, because they did produce a much-improved burst of energy in the second half. They outshot Forge 11 to four in the last 45 minutes, with 1.3 expected goals and 19 touches in the penalty area.

Antonoglou put his own hand up postmatch in a description of the first half, suggesting he and his teammates had been giving the ball away too easily, but added that the disallowed offside goal they put in the net just before halftime gave them a little renewed belief heading into the locker rooms, which sparked a much better second frame.

However, head coach Phillip Dos Santos was still frustrated with the way his team began the game, pointing out that it’s now two weeks in a row they’ve found themselves in a 2-0 hole in the first half where they were forced to battle from behind.

“Two games in a row where I feel like we step in the game a bit timid, and then when we’re in the hole we react to it,” Dos Santos said postmatch.

“I think the changes in the second half also helped the team grow, be a bit more aggressive, and of course we knew that all we needed was one goal to put the pressure on their side. It’s unfortunate because I felt that the response was good, I felt that for what we created, they also had their chances and could’ve gone up 3-1 early in the half, but I think our response is a lot more of what we want to be about and that’s what gives me hope.”

There’s also some individual credit due to 21-year-old Abdul Binate, who dropped to the bench this week after starting Valour’s last 10 games in all competitions. He came into the match in the 63rd minute, and it was he who scored the goal — his first ever in a professional game — in what was an encouraging moment for a young player.

HAMILTON, ONTARIO, CANADA/Canadian Premier League/June.23rd, 2024/ Jojo Yanjiao Qian/Forge FC

Poku continues adding to profile as all-action centre-forward

It’s no longer a surprise seeing Bobby Smyrniotis deploy Kwasi Poku as a striker in his 4-2-3-1 setup, but it bears repeating that Poku has been outstanding there. He’s now up to three goals and two assists (all competitions) in the six games he’s played in the role, but what was perhaps most impressive in this game was how effectively he covered ground to make himself near impossible to track.

Poku’s movement allowed him to pop up as an option in almost every Forge attacking move. Although he had the fewest touches of any Forge starter with 28, he was undoubtedly the most dangerous, scoring twice with four shots and also creating three chances.

He also won the ball in the final third twice, putting in a relentless 90 minutes defensively as well as during attacking moments.

A look at his map of passes, shots and defensive actions from this match indicates just how much of the pitch he was involved on, which is impressive from a centre-forward but indicative of the free-flowing roles that Smyrniotis assigns to all of his attacking players.

Kwasi Poku’s actions vs. Valour

“I think I’ve always thought of myself as more of an attacker, and the striker role plays to my strengths,” Poku himself said of how he’s been enjoying the position recently.

Meanwhile, Smyrniotis continued to praise the youngster’s innate technical abilities that make him so effective in that spot, adding that his workrate and willingness to press have fit perfectly into the tactical plan he’s been looking for.

“[I’ve liked] the confidence of what he’s doing there, being more comfortable playing there, and then just constantly trying to get better at certain things, through training itself, and through discussions we’re having with the coaching team,” Smyrniotis said. “He’s got a lot of intelligence to play that position. … I think his workrate’s been excellent there, and he’s probably one of the best players in the team at finishing in and around the goal, and through all his years here. Now he’s showing it a little bit closer in the central axis.”

Smyrniotis will have some very difficult decisions to make fairly soon, now that Jordan Hamilton is back to match fitness and with Terran Campbell’s return not far off either. At the moment though, Poku has been operating as one of the most effective strikers in the entire league, and it’s very unlikely at this point that he’ll be dropped anytime soon.


CanPL.ca Player of the Match

Kwasi Poku, Forge FC

The young attacker continues to thrive in his number nine position for Forge, scoring twice on Sunday with four shots and three chances created.

What’s next?

The turnaround will be quick for both sides, as Valour head back home to host York United FC on Thursday, June 27 (6:30 p.m. CT/7:30 p.m. ET). Forge, meanwhile, head to the capital for a match with Atlético Ottawa on Friday, June 28 (7 p.m. ET).

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