The 34-team CONCACAF Nations League Qualifying tournament wraps up on Sunday (6 p.m. ET, TSN2/RDS), bringing the 2019 Gold Cup and CONCACAF Nations League “groups” into view.
Canada has a good idea where it could end up after collecting a perfect nine points through three rounds, but its spot isn’t yet guaranteed.
Here’s what’s on the line for Les Rouges entering their final test against French Guiana at Vancouver’s BC Place.
A win (or draw) and you’re in
A win or a draw for will secure Canada’s spot in the top six of Nations League qualifying, which will clinch a spot in League A and the 2019 Gold Cup. This is the top prize for every nation that entered the qualifying process.
Canada is tied atop the standings on nine points through three matches alongside Curacao, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica and Martinique. If drawn today, those six would join Mexico, Panama, Costa Rica, the U.S., Honduras and Trinidad and Tobago in League A (those sides qualified automatically by making the Hex in 2018 CONCACAF World Cup qualifying).
In summary, a win or draw here earns a Gold Cup spot and a much more challenging set of matches when the Nations League kicks off this May.
Not all lost by loss
In the unlikely case of a loss to French Guiana, Canada will still likely qualify for the Gold Cup and League A (a handful of results and a big goal swing would need to go against them). However, there is a chance they fall into League B qualification instead (teams seventh to 22nd from qualifying will go into the second-tier league of Nations League).
Currently sitting third on nine points, Canada’s saving grace, in the case of a loss, would be its current plust-14 goal-differential (the first tiebreaker in Nations League qualifying). It’s the third-highest in the competition, making it a potential edge over the likes of Bermuda and Guyana if those sides were to win on the final day.
Matches to watch
Suriname vs. St. Kitts and Nevis (March 23)
York9 FC’s Justin Springer will be in the squad for St. Kitts and Nevis, who will be looking to book a spot in their first-ever Gold Cup. A win will do it for the Sugar Boyz, whose only blemish was a 1-0 loss to Canada in November.
Guyana vs. Belize (March 23)
Forge FC forward Emery Welshman is looking to do the same as Springer: Get his country into the Gold Cup for the first time. The Guyanese sit on the six-point bubble heading into their home match against Belize. Welshman and co. likely only needing a draw to qualify thanks to their +10 goal difference, which was bolstered by a Welshman hattrick against Turks and Caicos in October.
El Salvador vs. Jamacia (March 23)
El Salvador is in serious danger of missing its first Gold Cup since 2005. On the six-point bubble sporting a measly plus-3 goal difference, the 73rd-ranked country in FIFA’s World Rankings will need a big win over powerhouse Jamacia to get into the top ten.
Nations League Qualifying summary:
– Top six qualify for League A, 2019 Gold Cup
– 7th to 10th qualify for League B, 2019 Gold Cup
– 11th to 22nd qualify for League B
– 23rd to 34th qualify for League C