2024 CPL Regular Season — Match #108
Vancouver FC vs. Valour FC
October 13, 2024 at 2 p.m. PT/4 p.m. CT
Willoughby Community Park in Langley, British Columbia
Watch Live: OneSoccer.ca & TELUS Ch. 980 // Tickets available here

Matchweek #27 of the 2024 Canadian Premier League season comes to an end with a massive clash out West, as Vancouver FC gets set to host Valour FC at Willoughby Community Park on Sunday.

There, the playoff hopes of both teams hangs in the balance after Pacific FC’s big win over York United on Thursday, which has ramped up the pressure on all of the other teams currently battling for the fifth and final playoff spot in the CPL.

Two of those sides are Vancouver and Valour, who now sit in sixth and seventh place respectively as of writing after Pacific’s victory, which saw the Tridents climb into fifth place.

On one side, there’s the hosts, Vancouver, who are getting set for arguably their biggest game in their club’s history. Their last home match of 2024, they can keep control of their playoff destiny heading into the final week if they win this match, as that would push them back into a tie with Pacific FC on 31 points.

Given that they would hold the necessary tiebreakers over Pacific, as they would be tied on wins but hold the head-to-head advantage over Pacific from this year, that would allow them to head into their final match away to Atlético Ottawa knowing that their playoff fate would be entirely in their own hands, as they wouldn’t need any help to clinch should they beat Ottawa.

If they drop points against Valour, however, they would lose that privilege. With a draw, they’ll need to win on the final matchday and hope for Pacific to draw or lose, and for the Halifax Wanderers to drop points across their last two games – with a loss, they’ll need to win on the final matchday and hope for Pacific to lose, Valour to lose or draw (and even a draw might not be enough), and for the Wanderers to drop at least one of their two final games.

Safe to say, when looking at the complicated nature of the permutations that come from a loss or draw this weekend, Vancouver will be focused on chasing a win. It won’t be easy, as they enter this weekend riding a six-game winless streak (0W-2D-4L), and have won just one of their last eight home games (1W-1D-6L), but they have a chance to put that all behind them and keep their playoff hopes alive with a positive result.

“I believe it’s all about the mentality that we’re having in-game, and the confidence, belief, faith, the unity and all of the stuff that comes with chasing a victory,” Vancouver’s head coach, Afshin Ghotbi, said this week. “We need that, not just in the game, we’ve had it in training sessions, we’ve seen that process of getting points away to Cavalry and away to Halifax a man down, that takes enormous commitment from a group, and so the group is committed, and they’re believers, so I think we can get it done.”

Meanwhile, for Valour, they enter this weekend needing a win after Pacific’s result. With a loss, they’d be eliminated from the race altogether, unable to catch Pacific’s 31 points as they currently sit on 27 with two games to go, and even a draw might not be enough for them – that would send them to the final weekend needing a win, Vancouver to drop points, for Pacific to lose by a heavy margin to give them an edge on the tiebreaker and for the Wanderers to avoid winning their last two matches.

Should they win, however, they’d leapfrog Vancouver and would sit just one point behind Pacific, which while not enough to allow them to control their own destiny in that final matchday, would at least give them fair odds at reaching the playoffs should they beat Cavalry in their last game.

Plus, to their credit, they come into this clash in relatively good form, too. They’re coming off a tough 1-0 loss at home to Forge in their last match, a result that allowed Forge to clinch the CPL Shield, but despite that, they still enter this game with just three losses in their last 12 games (4W-5D-3L).

Ultimately, a run of four straight draws at the end of August and the beginning of September might prove to be costly for them, but they’ve done well to stay in this race by avoiding many losses, and they’ll look to continue that by nabbing a win this weekend.

“We have to to enjoy the moment we’re in, because for a while there it was difficult,” Valour’s head coach, Phil Dos Santos, said this week. “It looked like the team couldn’t find our ground, but as the season started to progress, we put ourselves in a position where we would be in the fight, and now we’re in that fight.”

In terms of player availability, Valour noted that they have no changes from their squad last week, which indicates they’ll be without Joe Hanson, while Vancouver will be without Elage Bah due to a red card suspension, Austin Ricci due to a yellow card accumulation suspension and Mikaël Cantave due to international duty, with Kadin Chung a game-time decision after missing the last few games.

All CPL and Canadian Championship matches will be broadcast live on OneSoccer, available as a linear channel on Telus’ Optik TV (Channel 980) as well as online at OneSoccer.ca, through the OneSoccer app and on the fuboTV Canada platform.

3 THINGS TO WATCH

• Playoff-like intensity expected for crucial match: Naturally, given what’s at stake for both teams, it’s expected to be a tight-fought game. Given how massive a win would be for either side, both teams will want to strike a balance between going for it and not giving too much away. At the same time, that can be a dangerous line to toe – sometimes, it can lead to a cautious match, one where a draw is the expected result. While a draw doesn’t eliminate either side, however, after Pacific’s win over York, a draw could also prove to be costly in both team’s playoff hopes. Because of that, it’ll be interesting to see how both teams navigate this unique challenge of both requiring a win and not being satisfied with a draw. What that could do is give extra importance to scoring the first goal, with the team that does so carving out a key edge in this game. Should that not come early on in the match, however, watch out, as it could also lead to a furious late flurry of chances from either team, too. Ultimately, while it’s hard to predict how this match might go, one thing’s for sure – it’ll be a highly strategic affair, one where managing every moment will be crucial to ensuring both sides give themselves the best chance at earning the result they desire.

• Can Vancouver re-find home form at crucial time? To start the year, Vancouver was a tough team to beat at home, going undefeated in their first five home matches, winning three of them (one of those matches includes their draw against Cavalry at the Apple Bowl in Kelowna). Since then, however, they’ve struggled massively at home, picking up just four points from their last eight home games. As a result, they enter this game with the worst home record in the CPL, sitting with just 15 points from 13 games. The good news? They’ve been solid on the road, which has allowed them to stay in the playoff race, but now, they’ll need to channel their early-season home form to try and get a result in this match. To do so, however, it’s clear what they’ll need – goals, as they’ve scored just 13 times in 13 home games, including just four times in their last eight home games. Often, those with the best home records tend to fill the net, as teams naturally tend to be more defensively sturdy at home – the familiarity teams have with their own pitches and the lack of travel make it easier to keep structure and defend at home compared to on the road. Because of that, Vancouver will want to get going offensively this weekend, as that’ll give them their best shot at success in this game. Other than a 3-1 loss to Forge in their last match, they had only conceded five goals in their five previous home games before that Forge result, so they’ve done well to keep things quiet at the back even if they haven’t been as prolific as wanted at home, but they’ll want to translate that into some more offence now here.

• Valour looking to keep late season fighting spirit alive: Given that they started their season with seven straight road games, picking up just four points from that stretch after starting the year with five straight losses, Valour’s done well to turn around their season with a strong second half push. Now, however, with their backs up against the wall, they must find a way to double down on that spirit, as they now look to avoid an early elimination ahead of the last matchday. Yet, given what they’ve shown as of late, it feels like that’s the last thing they’ll want to think about – no matter their results, they’ve done well to show good spirit all year long, which is why they haven’t lost by more than two goals since their season opener against this same Vancouver side. Since then, they’ve always ensured to at least go out swinging even if they lose, proving to be a tough match for opponents, especially on this recent 12 game stretch. Now, however, as they chase a massive win, they’ll want to find a way to combine that spirit with sharp execution in both boxes. Unfortunately in their most recent match against Forge, they put up a good performance and did well to fight until the very end in a tough 1-0 loss, but a lapse in their own box and a lack of finishing in Forge’s saw them lose a game where they’ll feel they could’ve at least gotten a point out of. Ultimately, at this time of the season, picking up points is all that matters in the race for the playoffs, so they’ll want to find a way to emerge with the three points they need, combining that strong spirit with ruthless execution to get that result they desire.