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MATCH ANALYSIS: Warschewski brace secures Cavalry 2nd place finish, eliminates Valour FC

Final Score: Valour FC 1-2 Cavalry FC
Goalscorers: Binate 7′; Warschewski 56′, 89′ (pen.)
Game of the 2024 season: 111
CPL match: 595


Match in a minute or less

A pair of goals from Cavalry FC’s Tobias Warschewski, including a penalty winner in the 89th minute, gave Cavalry FC a come-from-behind 2-1 victory over Valour FC on the final day of the 2024 CPL regular season in Winnipeg.

Warschewski’s goals, aside from securing his side a big result, also put the German on 12 goals for the campaign, enough to see him capture the 2024 Canadian Premier League Golden Boot Award as the league’s leading scorer during the regular season. His efforts ultimately undid an opener from Valour’s Abdul Binate.

The day saw the Winnipeg side eliminated from playoff contention, while for Cavalry the win means they secure second place in the CPL table, and will head to Hamilton on Sunday, Oct. 27 for the qualifying semifinal against Forge FC.


Three Observations

Cavalry FC secure second place, set up playoff rematch in Hamilton with rivals Forge

Cavalry’s 2024 Canadian Premier League playoffs will begin where their 2023 CPL playoff campaign ended, as they locked up second place in the table on Saturday.

That position in the standings, which would have come regardless of their result on the day after Atlético Ottawa were unable to defeat Vancouver FC in a 0-0 scoreless draw in the nation’s capital, was nonetheless given an exclamation point in a 2-1 come-from-behind victory over Valour.

Having gone into the half down 1-0, conceding just seven minutes into the match, Cavalry found a way through the Valour press in the second half and instantly started creating chances. They fired ten shot attempts, four of which were on target and had 1.26 expected goals in the second half alone. Meanwhile, they held their opponents to just four shot attempts, all of which were outside of the box.

Second half shot attempts from Cavalry FC (left) and Valour FC (right) — (Courtesy: Opta)

“This was their final, they came here needing to win the game, we were a big opponent for them,” said Cavalry FC head coach Tommy Wheeldon Jr. “They scored early, and with that came momentum for them. We were able to weather that, we were able to reflect and readjust at halftime. I thought second half we were fantastic and I thought the way we finished the game was exceptional.”

Cavalry now turn their attentions to a meeting with rivals Forge FC in the qualifying semifinals on Sunday, Oct. 27 at Tim Hortons Field in Hamilton, with the winner advancing to, and hosting, the 2024 CPL Final. Even with a loss, they would host the quarter-final winner in a second chance opportunity to reach a second consecutive final.

Of course, Hamilton was the site of heartbreak for Cavalry to end their 2023 season, when they lost 2-1 in extra time in the CPL Final. In a strong vein of form, it is an ideal opportunity for the Calgary club to exorcise their playoff demons.

“It’s exciting, I think the last few games have been that the teams we were playing against, whether that be Halifax last week, Pacific the week before, they wanted to make sure they were winning games to get in the playoffs,” said Wheeldon Jr. “So that replicated [the playoffs]. The North Star Cup goes through Forge, they’ve just won the regular season, so they’ve been the best team this season. The league table never lies, to face them, it’s a game we are looking forward to.”

This was a finish to the season that seemed a long way off when the Cavs sat sixth in the table, and below the playoff line, at the midway point of the campaign. But a tenacious run up the table over the second half of the campaign saw them finish just two points behind Forge, who lost 1-0 to Pacific in their season finale.

Traditionally a team that has been known to dominate at home, Cavalry largely rose to second place on the back of their outstanding road form in 2024. They finished with a league-high seven victories and 25 points, which was more than they collected during their CPL-Shield-winning campaign last year.

As luck would have it, they begin their postseason campaign on the road against Forge, looking to write new history at a Hamilton stadium that has haunted them in big matches since their inaugural season.

Cavalry FC’s Tobias Warschewski wins CPL Golden Boot with a heroic brace on the final day of the season

When it was revealed that 2023 CPL Golden Boot winner Myer Bevan would not be returning to Cavalry FC for the 2024 season, questions quickly arose as to who would lead the line and compensate for his league-leading 11 goals.

Enter Tobias Warschewski, who after spending the 2023 season away from the league, returned to join Cavalry FC and on Saturday scored his 11th, and 12th goals of the 2024 season to not only win his side their match against Valour FC, but the league’s 2024 Golden Boot award.

Warschewski looked incredibly hungry throughout the match offensively, and his teammates were only too happy to feed him opportunities as he finished with six shot attempts on eight touches in the Valour box.

The German opened his account on the day with a brilliant half-volley from the top of the box displaying both the immense technical skill and power that makes him such a special talent. Then, when he won a penalty in the 89th minute there was no doubt that it would be him stepping up to convert the chance.


His second goal in the 89th minute put him one ahead of Atlético Ottawa’s Rubén del Campo to take sole possession of the award. He also finished just ahead of Vancouver FC’s Alejandro Díaz (10) and York United’s Brian Wright (nine) in what amounted to a thrilling race to finish the regular season.

“Delighted for him, because I think [Rubén] del Campo started the season very well, Brian [Wright] started the season very well, and as did [Alejandro Díaz] so it’s been great that he’s got recognition as Golden Boot, and I think all the lads are delighted for him,” said Wheeldon Jr.

While he may have ultimately replaced, and then some, Bevan’s goalscoring output, Warschewski is far from a traditional striker like the New Zealand international. His versatility has seen him played in multiple positions for Cavalry over the course of the season, and even over the course of matches. He finished the campaign with the most dribbles attempted (48) and duels contested (384) of any player in the league showing his relentless ambition to impact matches.

“He’s played whether it be a nine, false nine, ten, eleven, seven, he’s able to rotate, I think he’s got really good unpredictability about his play so I think that’s what’s made him have a really good season,” said Wheeldon Jr.

As Cavalry’s attack has come to life again in recent weeks, it appears as though they are finding ways to get the best out of the German. Warschewski will go into the playoffs with five goals in his past three matches, the hottest striker in the Canadian Premier League right now.

“It’s been a really good season for him, but the scary thing is I think he can be even better,” said Wheeldon Jr.

Valour start strong, but squander another lead as they finish second consecutive season at the bottom of the CPL table

In the lead-up to Saturday’s match, the message from Valour FC’s coaching staff was to approach the game as if they were losing 1-0 right from the start.

That intensity clearly translated into the way they started the match on the front foot, pressing the visitors from the opening whistle. Just seven minutes into the match, they were rewarded for those efforts, as a quick and decisive counterattacking movement was finished off by Abdul Binate.

The young striker had an opportunity to double the lead moments later, as Valour again caught Cavalry playing out of the back — but perhaps incorrectly chose to shoot when Jordan Faria was wide open to his right.

“I couldn’t ask for more from the guys, I think that they gave everything they had,” said Valour FC head coach Phil Dos Santos. “I think that they were positive right from the start in the way they pressed, it put Cavalry in a challenge right from the beginning.”

As has been the case to a lethal degree this season for Valour, however, despite strong and compact defending they eventually allowed Cavalry back into the match. When Warschewski stepped up to the penalty spot to fire home the winner for Cavalry in a 2-1 result in the 89th minute, it was a league-leading 22nd point Valour had dropped from winning positions this season.

Even if they had held on for a victory on Saturday, it ultimately would have been in vain for the Winnipeg club, as a 1-0 victory for Pacific against Forge meant they were eliminated regardless of what happened in Winnipeg.

But after a strong finish to the campaign, it was still disappointing to end with a league-high 14th loss of the season, one which means they will finish the year in the eighth and final spot for a second consecutive year.

“I wanted the win for the guys, I wanted to win for this last game for what it meant for the club, and just to give the guys a prize for how they embraced this second phase of the season when things looked very difficult for us,” said Dos Santos. “Being this very hard team to play against and creating a foundation and a platform that allows us to build from. I think that was done.”

For Dos Santos, and many around the Winnipeg club, it will be yet another offseason of soul searching as they showed promise, but not enough progress to finally finish a regular season above the playoff line.


CanPL.ca Player of the Match

Tobias Warschewski, Cavalry FC

Warschewski was relentless in his pursuit of the Canadian Premier League’s Golden Boot on Saturday, with two goals earning him the honour and his team the win. He had a stunning six shot attempts, 10 dribbles attempted and contested 18 duels.


What’s next?

Cavalry FC open the CPL Playoffs against Forge FC on Sunday, Oct. 27 at Tim Hortons Field in Hamilton (2 p.m. MT / 4 p.m. ET) in the qualifying semifinal. For Valour, this is the end of the road for them as they unfortunately miss the playoffs for a sixth consecutive season.

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