Cavalry FC have always been one of the elite teams in the Canadian Premier League, but they still have yet to be the last side standing and win the championship in the CPL Playoffs.

They’ve lost two finals, in 2019 and 2023, both of them to Forge FC, but they have perhaps their best chance yet to lift the North Star Cup this Saturday, when they host Forge once again in the CPL’s marquee match.

Cavalry finished second in the regular season this year and beat Forge in the qualifying semi-final to earn the right to host this Final, but what will it take for them to finish the job and finally win that Cup?

Here are three reasons why the trophy might be coming to Calgary this year.

1. Nobody is better from set-pieces

Cavalry have long had a reputation for being the deadliest team in the CPL from dead-ball situations, and that remained true in 2024.

The Cavs generated 35 shots from set-pieces this year and played 48 successful corners into the box — both the most in the league. Fraser Aird, who typically takes corners from the left to deliver right-footed in-swingers, created a league-leading 32 chances from set-pieces.

On the other side, it’s usually the left-footed Ali Musse, who somehow finished fifth in the CPL in set-piece chances created with 14 despite missing 12 games.

The stretch of the year where Cavalry were without Musse was an undeniably tough one; they were 3-7-2 without Musse in the lineup, scoring just 11 goals in those 12 games.

Six of Cavalry’s nine goals from set-pieces (joint with York United for most in the league) came in the 12 matches after Musse’s return on Aug. 3.

Not only do Cavalry have two of the best ball deliveries in the league from Aird and Musse, they’ve also got a litany of players who make life difficult for defenders in the box. They’re physical, hard to track, and often impossible to beat in the air.

Cavalry won more aerial duels than any other team in the league in 2024 with 412 — a full 62 more than the second-place Halifax Wanderers. The Cavs’ 78 headed shots were also the most in the CPL. Daan Klomp alone had a league-leading 23 headed shots, and his teammate Malcolm Shaw was second with 13. Tobias Warschewski and Callum Montgomery also ranked among the league’s top players in winning aerial duels.

There will be a deliberate effort from Cavalry to create set-piece opportunities for themselves in the Final, because that might be their most reliable option to attack the Forge goal and put the ball in the net. If Forge let their opponents put the ball by the corner flag too many times, there’s a strong chance the game goes Cavalry’s way.

2. They have the best striker in the Final

Not all of Cavalry’s goals come from set plays, though. They have perhaps the biggest x-factor in this Final, in CPL Golden Boot winner Tobias Warschewski.

The biggest change in this Cavalry-Forge matchup from last year, when they met in the 2023 CPL Final, is that Cavalry have a very clear advantage in the striker position now, thanks to Warschewski.

Across all competitions, the German striker scored 14 goals in 2024 — and only four of them were from set-pieces (three of those penalties). He has already scored twice against Forge this season, including his winner in the qualifying semi-final match that earned Cavalry hosting rights for this Final:

Tobias Warschewski stays red-hot and gives @CPLCavalryFC the lead in Hamilton! 🐎#CanPL I 📺 @onesoccer pic.twitter.com/r8aELv1qOo

— Canadian Premier League (@CPLsoccer) October 27, 2024

There’s no player in this game — nor really in the entire CPL, for that matter — with the kind of profile Warschewski has. He’s physically imposing, at six-foot-two, and he uses his frame perhaps better than anyone else in the league; it’s not just that he wins battles (although he does — he led the league with 187 duels won). Warschewski shields the ball incredibly well and makes it difficult for opponents to dispossess him, which complements his soft touch and agility with the ball at his feet.

That’s why Warschewski is so dangerous when he takes on a defender, or brings the ball down in the final third and turns toward goal; his combination of speed, strength and skill means he beats his man more often than not.

RELATED: ‘A special player’: How Tobias Warschewski became the focal point of Cavalry FC’s attack in 2024

Once Warschewski gets into shooting range, he’s also one of the league’s most lethal finishers — evidenced by his goalscoring record. Perhaps the scariest thing is that six of his 14 goals came in the last four matches; there’s nobody in better form right now than him.

Warschewski’s rise comes at an opportune time for the Cavs obviously, and feels almost like part of the plan. They signed him in the off-season knowing he hadn’t played competitive football since the end of the 2022 CPL season with FC Edmonton; he needed some time to fully return to the top of his game, but he’s there now, at the most important part of the year.

3. They’ve learned how to win under pressure

This has not been an easy year for Cavalry FC. They won just two of their first 12 league games, and as recently as July 25 they were out of a playoff spot.

So, they spent much more of the last 13 games of the regular season in high-pressure situations than they ever did in the latter half of 2023, when they won the regular season title by 13 points. Just the fact that Cavalry had to fight more even to get here has made them better prepared for knockout football, where their backs will be against the wall.

The Cavs went 9-4-1 in the second half of the 2024 regular season; they’ve lost only once since July (albeit against Forge, at Tim Hortons Field on Sept. 7).

All that’s to say, Cavalry have been playing high-stakes football for a couple of months now, and have pretty much aced the test. They’re thriving under pressure, arguably more than they ever have as a club.

That culminated in the qualifying semi-final at Tim Hortons Field two weeks ago, where Cavalry delivered probably their best-ever 90-minute playoff performance. That was a cathartic moment for the club, beating Forge in the postseason for the first time.

That win at Tim Hortons Field proved, to themselves more than anybody, that Cavalry are capable of defeating Forge in a knockout game. The memory of previous meetings, especially the 2023 Final, had been looming large, and the Hamilton side had a clear psychological edge over their rivals after beating them six times in the playoffs.

Now that Cavalry have exorcised that demon, though, there’s no reason to believe they can’t beat Forge again — especially this time, on their familiar home pitch in front of a raucous partisan crowd.

The 2024 Canadian Premier League Final between Cavalry FC and Forge FC will be played Saturday, Nov. 9 at ATCO Field, kicking off at 1 p.m. MT/3 p.m. ET. Watch the match live on CBC or OneSoccer.