Saturday is the final day of the 2023 CPL regular season, and there’s still quite a lot on the line when it comes to positioning ahead of the upcoming playoffs.

We now know which five teams will play in the postseason; York United’s win at Vancouver FC on Friday clinched them the fifth and final playoff spot, and in doing so also eliminated Atlético Ottawa.

What’s still on the line, though, is seeding between second, third and fourth places, all of which remain available to Forge FC, Pacific FC and Halifax Wanderers. The Wanderers’ win at Valour FC allowed them to leapfrog Pacific into third place, before Saturday’s games.

A reminder: both of Saturday’s matches will kick off at the same time (5 p.m. ET/3 p.m. MT). Cavalry FC will host Pacific FC at ATCO Field, and Forge FC will play Atlético Ottawa at Tim Hortons Field.

We’ll break down all the scenarios that could see each team finish in what spot below, but to start, here’s how the standings look before Saturday’s games:

And this is how the playoff bracket looks on Saturday morning, if each team stays in the same spot. Cavalry and York will, we know already, finish first and fifth respectively, but there’s room for movement in between.

Don’t forget how much of an advantage there is to whoever finishes second, including the opportunity to play Cavalry in the semifinal qualifier and possibly host the Final.

Forge FC: Win clinches 2nd place

It’s straightforward for Forge, who control their own destiny in the battle for second. If they beat Atlético Ottawa — who have already been eliminated and are now playing for pride — then the Hamilton club finish second and travel to Calgary next weekend.

If they lose draw, then they need Pacific to either lose or draw to remain ahead of the Tridents.

There’s only one scenario where Forge finish fourth, and that’s if they lose to Ottawa by two or more goals (and Pacific win too). If they lose by one, then Halifax and Forge finish tied with a +7 goal differential. The next tiebreaker is goals for, and the two teams currently each have 39, so if Forge score in their loss they’ll finish ahead of Halifax.

For those wondering, the next tiebreaker after goals scored is away goal differential, in which Forge have a heavy advantage (+4 to Halifax’s -2).

Pacific FC: Need to win, hope for help in Hamilton

The Tridents were not too pleased to see Halifax beat Valour on Friday night, but they control their own ability to jump ahead of the Wanderers.

It’s not easy; Pacific have to win to get ahead of either Forge or the Wanderers (or both), currently sitting two points back. They could jump Halifax and reclaim third without any other results, but the only way they can get back into second place is if Forge lose or draw.

The good news for Pacific? If Forge draw and the Tridents beat Cavalry, then Pacific have the tiebreaker because it’ll be their 12th win.

Halifax Wanderers: Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry fans for the day

The Wanderers did their job on Friday, beating Valour to jump ahead of Pacific, but it’s not a secure lead. As mentioned, Halifax need Pacific to fail to win at Cavalry if they’re to finish third.

Of course, the dream of a second-place finish remains alive, but Halifax need some help from Ottawa. If Forge lose by multiple goals to Ottawa and Pacific lose to Cavalry, though, then the Wanderers jump them both and the possibility of a CPL Final in Nova Scotia remains alive.

Here’s a quick breakdown of what each result would mean in the standings: