2023 CPL Regular Season — Match #97
Valour FC vs. Forge FC
September 17, 2023 at 1 p.m. CT/2 p.m. ET
IG Field in Winnipeg, Manitoba
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It’s do-or-die time for Valour FC this weekend, as they look to keep their playoff hopes alive against Forge in a crucial Canadian Premier League clash at IG Field on Sunday.
Having picked up a crucial 3-1 road victory last weekend against York United, that’s allowed Valour to stay alive in the CPL playoff race for another matchday, as they currently sit in seventh place, 10 points adrift of the fifth and final playoff spot.
Because of that, a win in this game will keep their playoff hopes alive no matter what, while the right combination of results could even boost them to within seven points of the final playoff spot, with a game in hand on everyone in front of them.
Awaiting them, however, is Forge, who enter this match in third place, eager to both tighten their grip on a playoff spot, while remaining alive in the regular season title race.
Given that a loss in this game could eliminate them from the regular season title race if Cavalry beats Vancouver on Saturday, it’s a must-win game for Forge if they’re to keep their dreams of lifting that trophy alive, so they’re looking to come out strongly in this one.
Yet, if Forge is to get one over Valour in this game, it’s worth noting that they’d be bucking recent history by doing so – they haven’t won or drawn against Valour at IG Field since September 12th, 2019, four long years ago.
Since then, IG Field has become a house of horrors for them – Valour has won the last five matchups between the two teams in Winnipeg, doing so by a combined score of 8-1.
Because of that, Forge is entering this game well aware of the difficulties that lie ahead of them if they’re to win, as for them, even scoring goals in Winnipeg has been hard enough to do over the last few years.
Therefore, they’re attacking this game like it were a final, eager to reverse that trend, one that they’re eager to put behind them.
“The most important thing to understand is that Valour is a very resilient team,” Forge’s head coach, Bobby Smyrniotis, noted. “It doesn’t matter what their record is, if they’ve lost a few games in a row or they’ve put together a few wins, even in the times when they’re losing, they’re still a very resilient squat. They’re a team that goes out there and competes for 90 minutes, so they’re going to put in a shift and they’re going to put in a big effort (on Sunday).”
As for Valour, however, they’re not thinking too much about their past success against Forge. At this stage of the season, they’re just thinking about survival, and to do that, you can’t look too far behind or ahead.
Morale is high in the team at the moment – the big road victory over York United proved to be a big lift for this team, especially after a three-game losing streak, but they know that they need to string together a run of wins now.
To do that, however, they’ve got to take this next stretch one game at a time, so look for them to come out with a measured approach against the defending North Star Shield winners.
“I don’t talk about it during the week,” Valour head coach, Phil Dos Santos, said of his team’s dominance of Forge at home. “I don’t talk about it during the preparation of this game, because I know that every game is a different game, every scenario is different, and sometimes, when you talk about these things, it can put the players in a state of excessive confidence. They’re not dumb, they know the last two seasons we’ve had our best games against Forge (…), but we’re going to prepare for another game of football, and see how it goes.”
All CPL matches are available to stream on OneSoccer, or on TELUS Optik TV Channel 980.
3 THINGS TO WATCH
- Can Valour’s offence find more joy against Forge’s defence? It’s been a tough year for Valour’s offence, as even despite their three-goal outburst against York, they sit tied for last in the CPL with 21 goals through 23 games. Yet, despite that, they’ll be confident that they can find some goals against Forge in this game. A big reason why? In their three previous meetings with the Hamilton-based side, they found the net five times, meaning that they’ve scored 23% of their goals this season against Forge. Plus, they managed to find the net two or more times in two of the three outings, which given that they’ve only done that five times all season, shows that they’ve been doing their best work offensively against Forge. One thing to watch out for in this regard, however? Set-pieces, as three of Valour’s five goals have come from three difference centre backs, Abdou Samaké, Klaidi Cela and Guillaume Pianelli, all off dead-ball situations. At their best, Valour has the options at the back to make teams pay, especially when the likes of Diego Gutiérrez and Matteo de Brienne are providing the sort of service that they’re capable of delivering, so don’t be surprised if they try to make Forge pay in those sorts of scenarios. Because of that, it could be a busy day for Triston Henry in goal, as well as the likes of Manjrekar James, Garven Metusala and company in front of him, as they’ll have their hands full in those sorts of situations all game long.
- Valour’s battle for consistency continues: While Valour will be pleased that they were able to claim that victory against York this past weekend, they know that what’s next will be just as important – they need to follow it up with another win. Unfortunately, on the previous four instances in which they’ve won this season, they’ve failed to do that, and that’s led them to sit where they do in the table, as they just haven’t been able to grab wins on a consistent basis. They’re doing well to grab points – they’ve got eight draws on the year, which is why they’re still in the race, but a lack of wins have prevented them from climbing up the table. Because of that, it’ll be crucial for them to find a way to make it back-to-back wins, finally allowing them to grab hold of a bit of consistency. If they’re to do that, however, keep an eye out on those who shone last game for them, such as goalkeeper Rayane Yesli, and midfielders Gutiérrez and Dante Campbell, who were all named to last matchday’s Team of the Week. Given that they’ve been key leaders all season long, they will be crucial if Valour is to win again, so expect them to step up again in this one. “We want to try and get back-to-back wins, try and get back-to-back performances,” Dos Santos expressed. “I think that’s something that we’ve been missing this year, we haven’t been able to do that, so I want us to be able to give continuity to what was a very good performance on the road against York.”
- Forge’s width a potential asset on unique surface: After using a box midfield in possession for most of the summer, Forge has adjusted things tactically as of late, shifting to more of a 3-5-2 on the ball. A formation that allows them to have more width, as well as two strikers up front, it has worked quite well for them, too, as seen when they beat Vancouver FC on the road a few weeks back. Yet, against a Valour team that is quite good in midfield, it’ll be intriguing to see if Forge tries to overload them in midfield with a return to the box, or sticks with the benefits of the 3-5-2. For what it’s worth, Smyrniotis tried to play coy in the pre-match press conference, noting that there’s no guarantee that they come out in either formation, but it’s worth pointing out that the 3-5-2 could make more sense for them. Especially given the width of IG Field’s playing surface, which has given Forge fits in the past, capitalizing on that space by using the 3-5-2 could be key. For example, Béni Badibanga could be a key asset in that regard, as he’s proven to be a threat in wide areas when given the space. No doubt, Forge has the tools to go toe-to-toe with Valour in midfield if they use a box or a trio, thanks to the likes of Alexander Achinioti-Jönsson, Kyle Bekker, Aboubacar Sissoko, Alessandro Hojabrpour and Khadim Kane, but Badibanga’s ability to provide width could be a key asset to try and help stretch Valour out. “I’ll keep you guys guessing about that,” Smyrniotis joked about his preferred formation for this game. “Until then, you know, we have to move things around based on one the quality and the pieces that we have, as well as where we think we can try and expose the opponent, and where we think we can neutralize them. The beauty of our team is that we can pick one of three or four different shapes on the field, and then within the game, we can change that twice, and always be different in the attack and in our defending.”
PROJECTED STARTING XIs
Valour FC (4-2-3-1): Yesli; Campbell, Pianelli, Cela, Haynes; Polisi, Gutiérrez; Ponce, Sánchez, de Brienne; Williams
Forge FC (4-3-3): Henry; Rama, Henry, Metusala, Owalabi-Belewu; Kane, Achinioti-Jönsson, Bekker; Badibanga, Pacius, Campbell
ALL-TIME SERIES
Forge FC wins: 8 || Valour FC wins: 7 || Draws: 2
Last meeting:
July 15, 2023 – Forge FC 1-1 Valour FC
KEY QUOTES
“It’s good, but at the same time, it’s frustrating, because we know there’s quality here, there’s an ability to find goals and to play these types of games (like we did against York), and we just haven’t been able to do it consistently. So as I was rewatching the game, I was thinking, man, how easy is it when everyone gets in the game fast, when legs are moving, when players are working on both sides of the ball, when there’s a trust, a commitment to what we set out and told ourselves to do during that game, and how we tactically want to approach things. So it was a good performance, but a frustrating one at the same time.” — Valour FC head coach Phil Dos Santos
“That’s a tough one, as when looking at our record (as of late), the funny thing that happens when you’re part of this club, even if you haven’t lost a game in five, it feels a little bit disappointing and it’s looked upon as a little bit of a negative, and rightfully so. You know, when other teams may have been in this situation, they’d be having a fantastic streak. So you just got to take it in stride. That’s the reality where we are, we’ve given up a lot of points at home, but one thing we’re doing well lately is keeping the ball out of our net, and I think that’s very important for us, but we need to find that right balance between putting the ball in the net and keeping it out, and we know that’s important to find before this stretch that we have in front of us. Nothing is guaranteed, but there’s a lot of hunger in the group to make sure we go and give ourselves a challenge each and every game, and the challenge for this one is going and getting our first win against Valour at IG Field since 2019.” — Forge FC head coach Bobby Smyrniotis
“It’s important to stay confident and to stick to the game plan, knowing that if we do the right things, we’re going to be able to score goals, grab a clean sheet and get the three points. But it’s all in the mental game, it’s always in the mental game, you just have to be ready, to be focused and then have the right mentality to score goals and defend well.” — Forge FC forward Woobens Pacius