As hype builds for the 2020 CPL Final, fans of both Forge FC and HFX Wanderers FC have ratcheted up the animosity before their clubs square off for the North Star Shield.
As one might expect, the debates have begun in earnest over which team is better — is it the fast and direct Wanderers, or the patient and dominating Forge? Both squads have their share of players in good form at The Island Games, and they’re both very well-coached by Stephen Hart and Bobby Smyrniotis.
We’re quite likely to see an entertaining chess match of a final played out on Saturday (2:00 p.m. ET/3:00 p.m. AT on OneSoccer and CBC), with both managers probably coming into it with a trick or two up their sleeves.
To help fuel your debates, we’ve taken the liberty of breaking down both teams in each area of the pitch, to try and figure out where either of them might find an edge.
Goalkeepers
Likely matchup: Triston Henry (Forge) vs. Christian Oxner (HFX)
The two goalkeepers in this matchup have probably been the most consistent at The Island Games so far. Oxner made a huge impact on the Wanderers when he reclaimed his starting job from Jason Beaulieu, conceding just four times in six games. Henry, meanwhile, has played all but one of Forge’s matches at The Island Games.
Oxner has made 19 saves, which boils down to more per 90 minutes than Henry. His nine punches is most in the CPL outright, despite playing three fewer games than his opposite number.
On the other hand, Henry has four clean sheets, he’s the only ‘keeper to win double-digit duels (11), and his passing accuracy with goal kicks and general distribution has been much better than Oxner’s.
ADVANTAGE: HFX. It’s very close, and neither keeper has really set a foot wrong at The Island Games yet. Comparing the HFX games Oxner has played in to the ones he hasn’t, though, speaks to how much of an impact he has on the team’s back line. Returning players such as Peter Schaale are noticeably more comfortable with the ‘keeper they know best, and Oxner has been fantastic.
Defenders
Likely matchup: Kwame Awuah, Daniel Krutzen, David Edgar, Dominic Samuel (Forge) vs. Mateo Restrepo, Jems Geffrard, Peter Schaale, Chrisnovic N’Sa (HFX)
The Forge centre-back pairing has been unbelievable throughout The Island Games (for most of 2019 too, actually). Krutzen and Edgar are among the best passers in the CPL, and their impact on the whole product is remarkable. Both players are comfortable slipping into wide channels or taking the ball forward themselves — and they have full license to do so, with Alex Achinioti-Jonsson knowing he may need to drop back and cover.
Samuel, typically a centre-back but deputizing on the right, has been very good and has used his size to help out on set-pieces. Awuah, meanwhile, has as much pace and skill as you’d want from a modern attacking fullback. He was a big part of the reason Forge won Finals 2019, and he’ll be important again here.
HFX’s defensive group is strong as well; fan favourite Peter Schaale is great on the ball and can be counted on in last-ditch situations. He also leads the CPL in defensive touches with 81. Geffrard, meanwhile, has made 100 per cent of his tackles.
It’s a bit of a mystery who exactly lines up at fullback for the Wanderers (although we can be pretty sure that Chrisnovic N’sa will be in there for his talent in 1v1 battles). Alex De Carolis, Mateo Restrepo, and even Jake Ruby have all done very well when called upon. Restrepo has made the second-most tackles at The Island Games, and it’s most likely to be him on the left.
ADVANTAGE: FORGE. The Edgar-Krutzen pairing is tried and true; it’s been demonstrably the most consistent defensive unit in the CPL’s two years of existence. The mistakes are few and far between, and their ability to play the ball out of the back is part of why Forge is so patiently good.
Midfielders
Likely matchup: Alexander Achinioti-Jonsson, Paolo Sabak, Kyle Bekker (Forge) vs. Aboubacar Sissoko, Andre Rampersad, João Morelli (HFX)
On paper, Forge’s midfield probably tops HFX’s in terms of consistently proven talent. Joe Di Chiara identified the Bekker-Jonsson-Sabak trio as the engine behind Forge’s success, telling CanPL.ca this week that the way to beat this team is to pressure and neutralize them.
Sabak has completed more passes in the attacking third than anybody but Marco Bustos at The Island Games. Achinioti-Jonsson consistently hits 85 per cent of his passes. And Bekker is, well, maybe the best player in the CPL. He’ll cover every possible inch of the field to win balls and create attacking opportunities; he’s in the league’s top five for ball recoveries, scoring chances, and key passes.
Where this matchup gets more interesting, though, is considering what Sissoko and Rampersad could do to the aforementioned dominant midfield trio. Rampersad has won more duels than anybody in the CPL, and Sissoko has made 16 tackles (much more than anybody from Forge). They’re physical, they’re fast, and they’re extremely well-drilled in how to press.
Sissoko has been a revelation for HFX after signing with them from the Montreal Carabins of U SPORTS. He has the ability to dominate opponents and really make a midfield uncomfortable by bearing down on them at all times. Rampersad, too, has shown a knack for picking the right moment to press; he’s typically the one to attempt through balls and spring the counter-attacks.
Morelli deserves mention here as the excellent number 10, although he should really be counted among the attackers for his excellent chemistry with the front three.
ADVANTAGE: FORGE. By a hair, though. This is the battle that will win or lose this CPL Final; there’s a very real possibility that Sissoko and Rampersad overwhelm Bekker and neutralize the threat. Bekker’s challenge for the day will be breaking the press, which he’s shown an aptitude for doing. He may only need to do it once or twice, as well.
Attackers
Likely matchup: David Choinière, Anthony Novak, Jonathan Grant (Forge) vs. Alessandro Riggi, Akeem Garcia, Alex Marshall (HFX)
Forge has started a different front three in every single match of The Island Games. Bobby Smyrniotis has thrown 11 different players into the attack, meaning it’s been hard for opponents to predict who they’re going to see up front. The number nine job feels like it’ll go to Novak on Saturday, based on his body of work, but it could just as well be Babouli.
The bench is probably where Forge’s edge comes from; no matter who starts, there’s sure to be at least three or four players waiting for their opportunity to come in and join the attack as a substitute.
With HFX, we know much more about what we’ll be seeing. Akeem Garcia could well be the CPL’s Player of the Year, and he’s definitely the odds-on favourite to win the Golden Boot with his league-leading six goals.
Frankly, the Wanderers attack (Morelli included) has no right to be displaying this much chemistry; the timing of their runs, their crossing, and their ability to counter-attack as a unit is all phenomenal, especially for a group that had never played together prior to The Island Games.
It’s unlikely that HFX wins this final unless Garcia or Morelli either score or assist, but to be fair, they probably will. Garcia has scored in both games they played against Forge; the counter-attacking opportunity will come in this game, and HFX will trust that they can capitalize.
ADVANTAGE: HFX. This may be the most in-sync attacking unit we’ve seen in the CPL yet. They can cross the ball well, and both wingers are fully capable of cutting in on their own as well. Garcia will be the name Forge have circled in their preparations. Can he be stopped?
