The 2020 Canadian Premier League is too close to call.
Seven-of-eight clubs are eligible for The Island Games second round going into the final weekend of the opening group stage.
Atlético Ottawa’s late winner against Pacific FC on Wednesday blew the first round wide open and set up a mouth-watering series of final matches:
- Forge FC vs. Valour FC (12pm ET/1pm AT, OneSoccer/CBC) and York9 FC vs. Cavalry FC (3pm ET/4pm AT, OneSoccer/CBC) on Saturday
- HFX Wanderers FC vs. Atlético Ottawa (12pm ET/1pm AT, OneSoccer) and Pacific FC vs. FC Edmonton (3pm ET/4pm AT, OneSoccer/CHCH) on Sunday.
Just four points separate first from seventh, giving supporters, coaches, and players ample time to wrap their heads around results, eliminations, and multiple scenarios. Margins will be thin.
Here are some factors that will decide who makes the ‘top four’ at The Island Games.
RELATED READING: Black Lives Matter – Helpful reading and video resources
Curb fatigue, potential injuries as best as possible
Most clubs have struggled with fitness thus far in PEI, and those injury issues could be compounded with more matches on deck.
Take Valour FC. Coach Rob Gale saw his 2020 season jeopardized by injuries on Wednesday against HFX Wanderers when Andrew Jean-Baptiste, Stefan Cebara, and Chakib Hocine all went down with various strains.
The ramifications of these injuries come when you’re unable to make attacking substitutions in search of a late goal, something Gale lamented after the HFX match.
“We were just desperately unlucky with defensive substitutions and injuries, there’s no way to get around that,” Gale said. “All reactive substitutions, instead of trying to change the game. “[Failing to score] was an element of back luck because we couldn’t bring on attackers.”
In summary, keep your players fit: One slip up (read: hamstring pull) could be the difference.
York9’s brutal head-to-head tiebreaker
York9 FC has broken the CPL’s tie-breaking system.
With draws against every contender for the top four outside of Forge FC, the unbeaten Nine Stripes could advance based on goal difference, goals for, total number of wins, or most under-21 minutes.
Confirmed: #CanPL tiebreakers for The Island Games…
1. Head-to-head
2. Goal diff.
3. Goals for
4. Total # of wins
5. *Most U-21 minutes* in round
6. Coin toss or drawing of lots— Marty Thompson (@martythompson_) August 13, 2020
Those York9 stalemates with HFX Wanderers, Valour FC, Pacific FC, and Atlético Ottawa mean goal differential is a massive factor in the final standings.
Saturday’s Cavalry-York9 match to offer clarity
If there’s one match to watch this weekend, it’s Cavalry FC vs. York9 on Saturday. It’ll be a great game, surely, with the winner likely clinching a top-four spot and second-round berth.
But, a draw locking both teams at 11 points would prove much more entertaining, especially considering Sunday’s matches – HFX Wanderers vs. Atlético Ottawa and Pacific vs. FC Edmonton.
HFX Wanderers could move to 12 points, leapfrogging and clinching a top four spot and putting Cavalry, York9, and potentially Pacific on the bubble.
Cavalry’s nine goals-for to York9’s eight would be enough to see the Calgary club advance. Yes, York9 could go undefeated at The Island Games and not advance to the second round.
Also, as noted statistician Martyn Bailey has pointed out on Twitter, a Cavalry-York9 draw could lead to a *spits out coffee* five-way tie for first place.
In the 90th, @atletiOttawa keep the dream alive. Just 4 more results!! @CPLsoccer @onesoccer @vocalminorityCA @WakingtheRed @24thminute pic.twitter.com/SDHYfDi3zY
— Martyn Bailey (@martyn_bailey) September 3, 2020
Avoid late drama
A total of 16 goals at The Island Games have come after 85 minutes – that’s just over a quarter of the 63 total goals scored by CPL clubs.
It’s an incredible amount of late drama that has shaped the standings as we know them. Oddly enough, those 16 goals have accounted for a 16-point swing in the standings.
Think about FC Edmonton’s two-goal comeback against Atlético Ottawa, or Cavalry’s controversial penalty equalizer against Forge in Match #1, or when Forge’s Kyle Bekker beat Pacific FC as the clock struck 90’+7′.
To advance, you need to play all 90 minutes and keep your tail up late in matches. Just ask Pacific, who now sit on the outside of the top four after Atlético Ottawa’s Viti Martinez’s last-minute winner on Wednesday.
Teams need to hold on for dear life late in matches. Supporters and fans just need to watch to the bitter end. You never know what might happen…
